{"crisis":{"id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","name":"Iran Conflict 2026","slug":"iran-2026","status":"active","description":"US/Israel coordinated strikes on Iran (Operation Epic Fury) beginning Feb 28, 2026. Targets include defense ministry, IRGC compounds, and nuclear facilities. Iran retaliated with ballistic missiles. Strait of Hormuz blockaded. Khamenei reportedly killed in targeted strike.","region":"Middle East","update_cadence":"every_2_days","heat_level":"critical","started_at":"2026-02-28T00:00:00+00:00","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:58.562267+00:00","config":{}},"scenarios":[{"id":"9df99c77-19e6-4aa2-8158-6dda10b5faf7","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"E2","title":"Oil Crisis ($100-150)","category":"Economic","severity":3,"description":"Sustained oil prices above $100 causing global economic pain, inflation spikes, and consumer pressure.","current_probability":77,"previous_probability":82,"trend":"falling","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"b1e25dfb-f210-4595-9398-7cdb8f761d04","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"E4","title":"Sanctions Restructured","category":"Economic","severity":2,"description":"New diplomatic framework restructures Iran sanctions regime as part of broader resolution.","current_probability":30,"previous_probability":28,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"761a0015-b3c9-4667-8e88-e87231d5efec","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"E5","title":"Global Recession Triggered","category":"Economic","severity":4,"description":"Oil shock cascades into global recession through energy costs, supply chains, and market confidence.","current_probability":33,"previous_probability":33,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"f07f8661-fcef-4933-9a69-fdc653999915","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"E6","title":"De-dollarization Acceleration","category":"Economic","severity":3,"description":"Conflict accelerates shift away from dollar-denominated oil trade. Long-term structural shift in global finance.","current_probability":47,"previous_probability":42,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"d61e6d00-ed17-4f5d-b519-e4d6c90319d3","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"E7","title":"Strait of Hormuz Blockade","category":"Economic","severity":5,"description":"Iran partially or fully blocks the Strait of Hormuz through mines, naval assets, or anti-ship missiles, halting or severely disrupting the transit of approximately 20% of global oil supply. This triggers an immediate global energy emergency, potential military confrontation to reopen the strait, and cascading economic effects far beyond oil markets.","current_probability":48,"previous_probability":48,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"emerged","created_at":"2026-03-03T15:04:49.765022+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"b0bb13fd-90fc-45d5-8a8b-903f3f56372a","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"M11","title":"Iraqi Theater Expansion","category":"Military","severity":4,"description":"Iran's missile attacks on US bases in Iraq trigger a significant expansion of military operations into Iraq, with US forces conducting strikes against Iranian-backed militias and IRGC assets on Iraqi soil. The Iraqi government faces a sovereignty crisis as its territory becomes a primary battleground, potentially destabilizing the Iraqi state and drawing in additional actors.","current_probability":58,"previous_probability":60,"trend":"falling","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"emerged","created_at":"2026-03-05T15:08:54.384752+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"819ad6d2-e806-43e3-8f03-57fb8bfcc87b","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"M12","title":"US Casualties Escalation Trigger","category":"Military","severity":4,"description":"US military casualties from Iranian missile strikes on bases in Iraq create domestic political pressure for significant escalation, potentially including ground operations or strikes on Iranian leadership targets. The political dynamics of US casualties in an election-adjacent period force the administration toward more aggressive military options than originally planned.","current_probability":40,"previous_probability":45,"trend":"falling","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"emerged","created_at":"2026-03-05T21:06:25.420691+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"5201d0e5-26f8-4208-9dbb-9b55cb757436","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"M13","title":"Israeli Unilateral Escalation","category":"Military","severity":4,"description":"Israel conducts independent military operations beyond the coordinated US-Israel campaign, potentially targeting Iranian nuclear facilities or leadership. This could include strikes that the US has not approved, creating friction within the coalition and dramatically escalating the conflict.","current_probability":63,"previous_probability":65,"trend":"falling","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"emerged","created_at":"2026-03-06T15:06:54.71546+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"5b510670-5726-47d1-939e-989522e26599","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"M17","title":"Munition Depletion Crisis","category":"Military","severity":3,"description":"US and allied stockpiles of precision-guided munitions, Patriot interceptors, and Tomahawk missiles fall below operational thresholds, forcing a pause or significant reduction in air campaign tempo. Emergency defense appropriations are sought but cannot bridge the gap in time to sustain current strike rates. This creates a window of reduced pressure on Iran and potentially emboldens proxy and direct Iranian military action.","current_probability":85,"previous_probability":85,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"emerged","created_at":"2026-03-09T11:40:17.448566+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"b0d5fd38-fffe-4b29-a55c-61a04819d022","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"M19","title":"Nuclear Breakout Attempt","category":"Military","severity":5,"description":"With IAEA monitoring destroyed at all major facilities and Iran's 60% U-235 stockpile unaccounted for, Iran moves covertly to enrich to weapons-grade (90%+) at undisclosed locations. This scenario represents Iran exploiting the monitoring blackout to cross the nuclear threshold, triggering a fundamental shift in the conflict's stakes and international response. Detection would likely come through intelligence channels rather than IAEA verification, compressing decision timelines for a military or diplomatic response.","current_probability":28,"previous_probability":25,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"emerged","created_at":"2026-03-10T21:07:45.688281+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"677381ec-cb16-48cd-9988-60d78c8db4ec","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"M2","title":"Extended Air Campaign (Weeks)","category":"Military","severity":3,"description":"Prolonged aerial bombardment lasting weeks causing significant destruction to Iranian military infrastructure.","current_probability":87,"previous_probability":87,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"c639378a-da3e-403d-b45e-3ad5eb5ef49f","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"M20","title":"Nuclear Material Unaccounted","category":"Military","severity":5,"description":"Iran's 60% enriched uranium stockpile cannot be located or verified by international monitors following the destruction of IAEA surveillance infrastructure at Fordow and Natanz. In this scenario, the material has been dispersed to undisclosed sites, potentially including hardened civilian facilities or locations outside Iran's declared nuclear program. The resulting verification gap persists for weeks or months, forcing coalition decision-making under conditions of fundamental uncertainty about Iran's nuclear status.","current_probability":52,"previous_probability":52,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"emerged","created_at":"2026-03-15T21:06:27.346811+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"63e7810b-7727-4890-bbfd-33af2d225a0a","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"M21","title":"Reactor Radiological Release","category":"Military","severity":5,"description":"A direct strike on the Bushehr nuclear power plant or another Iranian reactor causes a radiological release, triggering IAEA emergency protocols and contaminating surrounding areas. Unlike weapons-program scenarios, this involves civilian nuclear infrastructure and produces fallout affecting Gulf shipping lanes, regional agriculture, and potentially neighboring states. The scenario does not require Iranian intent — it can result from targeting error, rogue commander action, or Iranian use of the plant as a shield.","current_probability":20,"previous_probability":20,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"emerged","created_at":"2026-03-18T21:10:59.006531+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"91c86f05-b803-426c-8fbb-951710bc2532","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"M22","title":"IAEA Verification Collapse","category":"Military","severity":4,"description":"IAEA monitoring continuity at Iranian nuclear facilities fails permanently or for an extended period, leaving the international community unable to verify the status of enriched uranium stockpiles or detect material diversion. This scenario describes a world where kinetic activity has structurally severed the inspection regime, not merely caused a temporary outage. The resulting verification vacuum forces states to make nuclear policy decisions based on intelligence estimates rather than treaty-based monitoring, fundamentally altering the nonproliferation architecture.","current_probability":88,"previous_probability":88,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"emerged","created_at":"2026-04-09T21:06:20.73418+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"3d1c80b5-d604-487c-ad52-0cf15a982454","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"M3","title":"Full Escalation (Months)","category":"Military","severity":5,"description":"Full regional war lasting months with mass casualties and potential ground operations.","current_probability":42,"previous_probability":38,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"7390cdd0-027d-4b4b-847d-5cfe72cedf4b","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"M5","title":"Stalemate & Attrition","category":"Military","severity":3,"description":"Grinding conflict with no clear resolution, ongoing low-intensity exchanges and economic pressure.","current_probability":52,"previous_probability":50,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"819d2e69-e6c4-441b-803b-c83fd7f79c46","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"M8","title":"Cyber Warfare Escalation","category":"Military","severity":3,"description":"Iran or its allies launch significant cyber attacks against US, Israeli, or Gulf state critical infrastructure (financial systems, energy grids, military networks) as an asymmetric retaliatory measure. This creates a parallel digital front alongside kinetic operations, potentially disrupting civilian infrastructure and global financial systems.","current_probability":55,"previous_probability":55,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"emerged","created_at":"2026-03-02T15:04:24.795016+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"7fdbbc2a-94d2-4c4e-97f3-b50473841237","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"P1","title":"Regime Survives (Weakened)","category":"Political","severity":2,"description":"Islamic Republic endures in diminished form with reduced regional influence and internal cohesion.","current_probability":60,"previous_probability":62,"trend":"falling","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"ea0c4cd6-03d7-437e-906b-c2cdaf464206","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"P10","title":"Humanitarian Pretext Re-entry","category":"Political","severity":3,"description":"Second intervention cycle triggered by humanitarian crisis from first intervention.","current_probability":28,"previous_probability":28,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"03883e1d-c3ce-48c0-8c1b-06dcdbe79981","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"P13","title":"NPT Withdrawal Executed","category":"Political","severity":5,"description":"Iran formally withdraws from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, triggering automatic IAEA inspector expulsion and collapsing the international legal framework constraining its nuclear program. This is distinct from IAEA verification collapse (M22) in that it represents a sovereign legal act with permanent treaty consequences, not merely an operational breakdown of inspection access. The withdrawal would remove Iran from NPT obligations indefinitely and create a precedent crisis for the global non-proliferation regime.","current_probability":22,"previous_probability":22,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"emerged","created_at":"2026-04-17T21:04:55.595214+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"e44a2219-f84c-45d6-97cf-7b21f3719ce3","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"R1","title":"Gulf States Neutral","category":"Regional","severity":1,"description":"GCC states maintain neutrality, avoiding direct involvement while quietly supporting de-escalation.","current_probability":32,"previous_probability":35,"trend":"falling","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"e9c1bc07-5965-4f20-a21c-149d6ed40127","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"R13","title":"China-Russia Counter-Intervention","category":"Regional","severity":5,"description":"China and Russia move beyond diplomatic statements to active countermeasures in response to US operations — potentially including naval escorts for Iranian oil shipments, direct military advisors, or enforcement of the proposed exclusion zone by force. This scenario describes a world where the conflict becomes a direct US-China or US-Russia confrontation in the Persian Gulf theater. The joint communique's explicit warning that strikes on Kharg Island would require a 'coordinated response' is the triggering language.","current_probability":25,"previous_probability":15,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"emerged","created_at":"2026-03-11T21:06:37.844515+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"0f0da214-3845-4eac-9c83-3bcc7aafed07","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"R3","title":"Proxy Activation (Multi-front)","category":"Regional","severity":4,"description":"Hezbollah, Houthis, Iraqi militias, and Syrian proxies activate simultaneously creating multi-front crisis.","current_probability":72,"previous_probability":72,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"1b478897-2b80-4e7a-a238-239bb168c92b","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"R6","title":"China Diplomatic Intervention","category":"Regional","severity":2,"description":"China leverages economic relationships to push diplomatic solution, establishing new geopolitical dynamic.","current_probability":63,"previous_probability":70,"trend":"falling","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"d1aed688-007f-410c-80c1-4b420fb13212","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"R7","title":"Refugee Crisis","category":"Regional","severity":4,"description":"Mass displacement from 88M population. Neighboring countries overwhelmed. Humanitarian emergency.","current_probability":65,"previous_probability":55,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"081473c5-adb9-46fd-a7f7-d525680aad8a","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"R8","title":"Rogue Commander Escalation","category":"Regional","severity":5,"description":"Isolated military commander launches unauthorized attack (WMD or critical infrastructure). Worst 48h window scenario.","current_probability":22,"previous_probability":22,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":null}],"retiredScenarios":[{"id":"6a73f78a-27da-431d-b6af-d274e9c3e1c0","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"E1","title":"Oil Spike Managed ($80-100)","category":"Economic","severity":1,"description":"Markets absorb the oil price shock within manageable bounds. SPR releases and Saudi output stabilize prices.","current_probability":22,"previous_probability":10,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":"2026-03-12T19:52:00.479+00:00"},{"id":"f1e025b5-7ff1-47be-994b-1bed28d6edb0","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"E3","title":"Strait Remains Open","category":"Economic","severity":1,"description":"Strait of Hormuz remains navigable despite conflict. Trade routes maintained with naval escort.","current_probability":5,"previous_probability":5,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":"2026-03-12T21:07:54.682+00:00"},{"id":"ed7ccded-5c6c-4428-a155-fdbcd8ee07c1","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"M1","title":"Limited Strike (Days)","category":"Military","severity":2,"description":"Contained military operation lasting days with minimal escalation beyond initial targets.","current_probability":7,"previous_probability":7,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":"2026-03-12T19:49:30.889+00:00"},{"id":"a03e7b58-b611-490d-aebb-9162fe009cbf","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"M10","title":"Major Cyber Disruption","category":"Military","severity":3,"description":"A significant cyber-attack by either side cripples critical military or civilian infrastructure — such as Iranian air defense networks, US military communications in the Gulf, or Iranian power grid systems — forcing a pause or shift in military strategy. This could include retaliatory cyber operations by Iran targeting US financial systems or Gulf state infrastructure.","current_probability":50,"previous_probability":58,"trend":"falling","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-03T21:38:25.362358+00:00","retired_at":"2026-03-12T19:47:43.064+00:00"},{"id":"fce7aad1-9254-48f4-9ad3-2b4f87299666","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"M14","title":"Cyber-Triggered Energy Disruption","category":"Military","severity":4,"description":"A major cyber attack — likely Iranian in origin — disrupts oil production, refining, or financial trading systems in the Gulf region, causing cascading economic effects beyond the kinetic conflict's direct impact. This could target Saudi Aramco systems, Gulf state power grids, or global energy trading platforms, creating a crisis that forces rapid diplomatic intervention.","current_probability":35,"previous_probability":28,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-07T15:05:48.527397+00:00","retired_at":"2026-03-07T23:26:53.419+00:00"},{"id":"25202597-3f09-449c-9e82-da930e439ba9","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"M15","title":"Western Infrastructure Cyberattack","category":"Military","severity":4,"description":"Iran or Iran-aligned cyber actors conduct a significant cyberattack on critical infrastructure in Western countries (US, Europe) as retaliation for kinetic strikes. This could target energy grids, financial systems, or transportation networks, broadening the conflict's scope beyond the Middle East and potentially triggering NATO-level responses.","current_probability":25,"previous_probability":22,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-07T21:05:59.437338+00:00","retired_at":"2026-03-07T23:26:53.419+00:00"},{"id":"156a29c5-6f3e-48c0-879a-ea8d413211a9","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"M16","title":"Iranian Unilateral Ceasefire Gambit","category":"Military","severity":2,"description":"Iran declares a unilateral ceasefire as a strategic maneuver to gain international sympathy, isolate the US diplomatically, and create pressure for negotiations on favorable terms. This would not necessarily reflect genuine willingness to stop fighting but rather a calculated information warfare move to shift global opinion.","current_probability":10,"previous_probability":8,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-07T22:05:40.100744+00:00","retired_at":"2026-03-07T23:26:53.419+00:00"},{"id":"836fd32e-2677-4c9a-83aa-0346a2474af5","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"M18","title":"Nuclear Site Ground Operation","category":"Military","severity":5,"description":"US special forces conduct a ground operation to secure or destroy enriched uranium stockpiles at the buried Isfahan facility, marking the first boots-on-ground action of the conflict. The operation targets approximately 400kg of 60%-enriched uranium that aerial strikes cannot reliably neutralize. Success or failure of this mission carries significant escalation risk, including Iranian retaliation against US personnel and potential radiological exposure.","current_probability":12,"previous_probability":15,"trend":"falling","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-10T15:55:32.233511+00:00","retired_at":"2026-04-16T21:06:02.881+00:00"},{"id":"1dd33e7a-7397-4b70-a86a-79f58ef6467b","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"M4","title":"Quick Ceasefire","category":"Military","severity":1,"description":"Rapid de-escalation through diplomatic channels resulting in cessation of hostilities within days.","current_probability":5,"previous_probability":5,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":"2026-03-12T19:51:26.825+00:00"},{"id":"21f68e27-9791-461c-b5ff-bddd0f888dbb","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"M6","title":"Iranian Military Collapse","category":"Military","severity":4,"description":"Complete degradation of Iranian conventional military capability creating power vacuum and loose weapons risk.","current_probability":15,"previous_probability":15,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":"2026-04-17T21:04:55.99+00:00"},{"id":"12064f84-288e-447e-b30b-db74ae377829","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"M7","title":"US Withdrawal Under Pressure","category":"Military","severity":2,"description":"Domestic or international pressure forces US disengagement from military operations.","current_probability":12,"previous_probability":20,"trend":"falling","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":"2026-03-12T19:51:35.016+00:00"},{"id":"d46b90b5-83b3-48f7-9192-4b3ca0abe426","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"M9","title":"Iranian Cyber Retaliation","category":"Military","severity":3,"description":"Iran launches significant cyberattacks against US, Israeli, or allied critical infrastructure (energy grids, financial systems, military networks) as an asymmetric response to airstrikes. This could disrupt coalition operations, cause economic damage, and potentially draw in additional international actors through Article 5-type cyber defense provisions.","current_probability":67,"previous_probability":52,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-03T15:04:49.13904+00:00","retired_at":"2026-03-07T23:26:53.419+00:00"},{"id":"4e07290b-39e1-41bb-92ab-9581737b5dda","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"P11","title":"IRGC Warlordism","category":"Political","severity":4,"description":"IRGC splinters into armed fiefdoms with no central authority. Regional commanders become warlords.","current_probability":22,"previous_probability":21,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":"2026-03-07T23:26:53.419+00:00"},{"id":"3d525e2d-03a7-47b0-b15d-93921e32ab02","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"P12","title":"War Crimes Accountability Process","category":"Political","severity":3,"description":"International legal bodies or ad hoc tribunals open formal investigations into alleged war crimes committed during the conflict, including strikes on civilian infrastructure and schools. The process generates sustained diplomatic pressure on the US, Israel, and Iran, constraining military options and complicating ceasefire negotiations. This scenario does not require convictions — only a credible, institutionalized accountability process that shapes the political environment.","current_probability":18,"previous_probability":20,"trend":"falling","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-25T15:07:06.776978+00:00","retired_at":"2026-04-04T23:21:22.27+00:00"},{"id":"dd8e5ef0-a741-4d0e-a4bb-ed51de0e901e","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"P2","title":"Negotiated Transition","category":"Political","severity":1,"description":"Diplomatic framework produces managed political transition with international guarantees.","current_probability":12,"previous_probability":14,"trend":"falling","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":"2026-04-04T21:06:32.938+00:00"},{"id":"7a5b6d59-8a6b-4609-bb5f-18601a68f329","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"P3","title":"IRGC Coup","category":"Political","severity":4,"description":"Revolutionary Guard seizes direct control establishing military dictatorship, sidelining civilian government.","current_probability":17,"previous_probability":17,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":"2026-04-04T23:21:04.761+00:00"},{"id":"de8deeeb-3c98-4d46-bcf5-2a648efe1cd1","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"P4","title":"Popular Revolution","category":"Political","severity":2,"description":"Iranian population leverages crisis to overthrow regime in mass uprising. Hopeful but chaotic outcome.","current_probability":18,"previous_probability":10,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":"2026-04-07T21:06:19.063+00:00"},{"id":"c5d62713-8231-443b-81ea-b7b5892b5d74","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"P5","title":"State Fragmentation","category":"Political","severity":5,"description":"Iran fractures along ethnic/regional lines — Kurdish, Azeri, Baloch regions assert autonomy. Yugoslavia scenario.","current_probability":15,"previous_probability":12,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":"2026-04-04T23:20:52.888+00:00"},{"id":"4a331c77-fe97-4cee-a024-c5d5440de87a","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"P6","title":"Democracy Transition","category":"Political","severity":1,"description":"Aspirational outcome where crisis catalyzes genuine democratic reform. Historically unlikely but not impossible.","current_probability":3,"previous_probability":3,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":"2026-03-07T23:37:14.317+00:00"},{"id":"041fdd89-1b8d-4494-a1a8-a0078fe124e0","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"P7","title":"Failed State","category":"Political","severity":5,"description":"Complete collapse of central authority. Libya/Somalia scenario with 88M population. Humanitarian catastrophe.","current_probability":8,"previous_probability":8,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":"2026-04-04T23:20:46.191+00:00"},{"id":"a8c59583-edee-4527-9128-9269d3da4521","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"P8","title":"Khamenei Succession Crisis","category":"Political","severity":4,"description":"Power vacuum following Supreme Leader's death triggers competing succession claims and command paralysis.","current_probability":30,"previous_probability":28,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":"2026-04-04T23:21:53.193+00:00"},{"id":"5b14fa45-e39a-40ca-bd24-ef715c2b78b8","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"P9","title":"Managed Chaos Exit","category":"Political","severity":4,"description":"External powers engineer permanent Iranian weakness by design — not regime change, but perpetual instability.","current_probability":12,"previous_probability":12,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":"2026-04-20T21:05:48.405+00:00"},{"id":"159bf704-b66c-48bb-bff9-9963a4a25677","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"R10","title":"Russia-China Military Support","category":"Regional","severity":5,"description":"Russia or China provides direct military support to Iran — including advanced weapons systems, intelligence sharing, or military advisors — fundamentally altering the power balance and risking a broader great-power confrontation. This could include expedited delivery of advanced air defense systems, anti-ship missiles, or real-time satellite intelligence.","current_probability":22,"previous_probability":20,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-02T15:04:25.36861+00:00","retired_at":"2026-03-07T23:26:53.419+00:00"},{"id":"c3b86863-82f8-4944-9922-8baed9ac2e1c","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"R11","title":"Gulf State Proxy Blowback","category":"Regional","severity":4,"description":"Iranian proxies (Houthis, Iraqi militias) miscalculate attacks on Gulf state infrastructure, causing significant damage that forces Saudi Arabia and/or UAE into direct military engagement against Iran or its proxies. This transforms the conflict from a US-Israel vs Iran dynamic into a broader regional war with Gulf states as active belligerents.","current_probability":35,"previous_probability":35,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-07T21:05:58.764148+00:00","retired_at":"2026-03-07T23:26:53.419+00:00"},{"id":"1243dd01-6004-4620-9f3a-c08573095dc3","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"R12","title":"Gulf Mediator Emergence","category":"Regional","severity":1,"description":"A Gulf state such as Qatar or Oman emerges as a credible mediator between Iran and the US-Israel coalition, leveraging existing diplomatic relationships with both sides. This could produce a backchannel framework for de-escalation that bypasses the UN Security Council deadlock.","current_probability":12,"previous_probability":12,"trend":"new","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-07T22:23:42.837782+00:00","retired_at":"2026-03-07T23:26:53.419+00:00"},{"id":"7dda7e9b-e1d7-4336-9b49-e6ec45822af6","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"R2","title":"Gulf States Join Coalition","category":"Regional","severity":2,"description":"Saudi Arabia, UAE, or others join US-Israel military coalition expanding conflict footprint.","current_probability":15,"previous_probability":10,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":"2026-04-13T21:06:49.821+00:00"},{"id":"17bec0ed-e297-4eb5-9e73-4b4aa14d2100","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"R4","title":"Proxy Restraint","category":"Regional","severity":1,"description":"Iran-aligned proxy groups hold fire despite strikes, either by choice or loss of command coordination.","current_probability":10,"previous_probability":5,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":"2026-03-12T19:52:12.015+00:00"},{"id":"6af9d985-62db-4ecb-9620-50d7e13bc37a","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"R5","title":"Turkey Mediator Role","category":"Regional","severity":1,"description":"Turkey positions itself as diplomatic mediator leveraging NATO membership and regional relationships.","current_probability":28,"previous_probability":18,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":"2026-04-04T23:21:38.225+00:00"},{"id":"dc757e99-314d-48ac-9bd3-91a520cc99f5","crisis_id":"951f81ae-8eb2-4a10-92a0-be29cc9f0116","code":"R9","title":"Proof-of-Life Info War","category":"Regional","severity":3,"description":"Deepfake-era first: competing claims about Khamenei's status weaponized for strategic uncertainty.","current_probability":48,"previous_probability":55,"trend":"falling","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-01T20:37:59.098481+00:00","retired_at":"2026-04-04T23:22:19.2+00:00"}]}