{"crisis":{"id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","name":"Taiwan Strait Crisis","slug":"taiwan","status":"monitoring","description":"Tracking the escalating cross-strait confrontation between China and Taiwan, including military coercion, economic pressure, political dynamics, semiconductor implications, and allied response.","region":"Indo-Pacific","update_cadence":"every_4_days","heat_level":"warm","started_at":"2026-03-01T00:00:00+00:00","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.709+00:00","config":{"models":["claude","gpt4o","gemini","grok","deepseek"],"max_change":10,"scenario_categories":["Military","Political","Economic","Regional","Strategic"]}},"scenarios":[{"id":"5d49dd22-de60-406e-9d09-bfc8058ccc52","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"E1","title":"Semiconductor Supply Disruption","category":"Economic","severity":5,"description":"Any military action or blockade disrupts TSMC operations and global chip supply. The world loses access to advanced semiconductor manufacturing.","current_probability":62,"previous_probability":52,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"58458180-aa6c-4018-b2f0-2621d35b9e62","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"E2","title":"TSMC Decoupling Accelerated","category":"Economic","severity":3,"description":"The threat of disruption accelerates TSMC fab construction in US, Japan, and Germany. Taiwan's semiconductor leverage diminishes as production diversifies.","current_probability":65,"previous_probability":62,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"d633cf37-6818-43a1-a461-d109a5248aa6","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"E3","title":"Chinese Economic Coercion","category":"Economic","severity":3,"description":"China uses trade restrictions, tourism bans, investment freezes, and supply chain pressure to punish Taiwan without military action. Diplomatic allies pressured to derecognize.","current_probability":70,"previous_probability":70,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"fd56d538-d7a8-4914-8829-d661ce0b1f81","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"E4","title":"Energy Blockade","category":"Economic","severity":4,"description":"China targets Taiwan's energy imports specifically. Taiwan imports 98% of its energy. Even partial maritime disruption to LNG tankers creates immediate civilian crisis.","current_probability":28,"previous_probability":22,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"1b23112b-e508-4991-8edc-12714c76fc8a","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"E5","title":"Global Economic Contagion","category":"Economic","severity":4,"description":"A Taiwan crisis triggers global economic shock: semiconductor shortage, shipping disruption, supply chain collapse, market panic extending far beyond the strait.","current_probability":38,"previous_probability":32,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"3694af87-d2d0-47e3-9704-3782a699de43","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"E6","title":"Taiwan Energy Emergency","category":"Economic","severity":4,"description":"Taiwan's LNG reserves fall below operational minimums, triggering rolling blackouts that directly impair semiconductor fabrication capacity. The crisis forces emergency rationing decisions that pit civilian consumption against industrial output, with TSMC and other fabs facing curtailed production windows. The scenario plays out as a sustained energy deficit lasting weeks rather than days, caused by sustained disruption to LNG supply routes rather than a temporary shock.","current_probability":50,"previous_probability":50,"trend":"new","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"emerged","created_at":"2026-05-07T12:06:55.142347+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"3869e96a-debf-4e8e-be76-0012bee6450b","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"M1","title":"Full Amphibious Invasion","category":"Military","severity":5,"description":"PLA launches full-scale amphibious assault on Taiwan with preceding missile strikes targeting military installations and US forces in Japan and Guam. Extremely high cost and risk for China.","current_probability":12,"previous_probability":12,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"e2b17982-c64e-4797-bdd5-869e9354a85e","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"M2","title":"Naval Blockade","category":"Military","severity":5,"description":"China imposes a maritime quarantine or full naval blockade around Taiwan, intercepting commercial shipping and energy imports. Legalistic framing as 'customs inspection' complicates international response.","current_probability":22,"previous_probability":22,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"f8bf08df-5b71-41f9-a6e8-8c97d0cd393d","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"M3","title":"Air and Maritime Exclusion Zone","category":"Military","severity":4,"description":"China declares airspace and maritime zones around Taiwan as restricted, backed by military enforcement. Disrupts commercial aviation, shipping insurance, and international access.","current_probability":40,"previous_probability":38,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"1ec8e6f1-7a9d-4977-ac5b-1af93797a68d","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"M4","title":"Contiguous Zone Normalized","category":"Military","severity":3,"description":"PLA and Coast Guard operations within Taiwan's contiguous zone become permanent and routine. The 24nm buffer zone ceases to function as a restraining boundary.","current_probability":90,"previous_probability":88,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"4846df75-70c7-4720-96a4-88e098faa732","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"M6","title":"Accidental Escalation","category":"Military","severity":5,"description":"A military incident — radar lock, collision, downed aircraft, stray munition — between PLA and Taiwanese or US forces triggers rapid escalation neither side intended.","current_probability":38,"previous_probability":35,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"0a5aa3a4-a293-434b-bc41-c16a38519440","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"M7","title":"Coercion Campaign Sustained","category":"Military","severity":3,"description":"China maintains current trajectory: daily median line crossings, periodic large-scale exercises, contiguous zone incursions. The pressure is the strategy, designed to exhaust Taiwan psychologically.","current_probability":90,"previous_probability":85,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"c0dbca1d-ebef-4899-b580-89721b0fa149","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"M8","title":"Cyber Infrastructure Attack","category":"Military","severity":4,"description":"China conducts significant cyberattacks against Taiwan's critical infrastructure — power grid, financial systems, telecommunications, or government networks — as part of its coercion campaign. This could serve as a force multiplier for military pressure or as a standalone escalation below the kinetic threshold, causing major disruption while maintaining plausible deniability.","current_probability":42,"previous_probability":40,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"emerged","created_at":"2026-03-06T15:12:58.279924+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"95347191-3865-40f3-b3c5-f3e459f4eb5c","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"M9","title":"CCG Administrative Encroachment","category":"Military","severity":3,"description":"China Coast Guard operations near Taiwan's outlying islands transition from episodic presence to sustained 'law enforcement' patrols that challenge Taiwan's administrative control without triggering a conventional military response. Beijing frames these operations as domestic law enforcement rather than military action, creating legal and political ambiguity that complicates Taiwan's response options. Over time, CCG presence normalizes Chinese jurisdiction claims over waters and features currently administered by Taiwan.","current_probability":62,"previous_probability":62,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"emerged","created_at":"2026-04-17T12:06:30.195256+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"802c3366-aa2b-4007-8a3a-ae4e7b752869","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"P2","title":"Taiwan Political Paralysis Deepens","category":"Political","severity":3,"description":"DPP-KMT gridlock continues. Defense budget stalled. No coherent cross-strait policy. Internal divisions prevent Taiwan from responding effectively to Chinese pressure.","current_probability":52,"previous_probability":50,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"7f046b79-d1a7-4ed8-bfa9-2cb8b19a8a08","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"P4","title":"KMT Returns to Power","category":"Political","severity":2,"description":"Opposition wins next election or forces policy change through legislative control. Cross-strait engagement resumes. Defense spending deprioritized. Relations warm but negotiating position weakens.","current_probability":18,"previous_probability":18,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"ce27c057-1a9a-49a7-9b6b-901c5d20003f","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"P5","title":"Hong Kong Precedent Collapse","category":"Political","severity":2,"description":"The visible failure of 'one country, two systems' in Hong Kong continues to shape Taiwanese public opinion against reunification. Public appetite for negotiated integration disappears.","current_probability":18,"previous_probability":18,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"67a80217-e8d3-4629-bc74-c19411e8b0a5","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"P6","title":"Psychological Capitulation","category":"Political","severity":4,"description":"Without formal political change, Taiwanese public gradually accepts inevitability of reunification. Self-censorship increases. Businesses align with Beijing. Military morale erodes.","current_probability":18,"previous_probability":15,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"0281b60f-93da-46a5-ae40-5b95e1d3f709","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"R1","title":"US Military Intervention","category":"Regional","severity":5,"description":"United States intervenes militarily in response to Chinese aggression against Taiwan. Carrier groups deployed. Direct confrontation between US and Chinese forces.","current_probability":15,"previous_probability":15,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"9c4f2627-869e-479d-850c-1420d39749d7","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"R3","title":"Japan Active Involvement","category":"Regional","severity":3,"description":"Japan declares a Taiwan contingency a national crisis and deploys Self-Defense Forces. PM Takaichi's statements become policy. The most significant allied commitment beyond the US.","current_probability":55,"previous_probability":58,"trend":"falling","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"a66522f2-a558-499c-b9f5-278ab5898f2a","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"R4","title":"AUKUS Pacific Deterrence","category":"Regional","severity":2,"description":"Australia, UK, and broader allied coalition strengthen Pacific deterrence through submarine deployment, base access agreements, and joint patrols.","current_probability":38,"previous_probability":38,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"8d878d17-24a8-4bfc-8ccf-20e99082b8eb","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"R5","title":"Allied Fragmentation","category":"Regional","severity":3,"description":"Coalition response fractures. European allies prioritize trade with China over Taiwan solidarity. ASEAN splits. The united front China fears fails to materialize.","current_probability":20,"previous_probability":18,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"71403ca0-4011-4415-b156-12528cba26db","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"R6","title":"Philippines/South China Sea Linkage","category":"Regional","severity":3,"description":"China escalates simultaneously in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, splitting allied attention and resources. Philippines conflict draws US assets away from Taiwan.","current_probability":50,"previous_probability":55,"trend":"falling","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"4f9e0df3-9bf4-473a-8f53-f924f145d26a","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"S1","title":"Deterrence Holds","category":"Strategic","severity":1,"description":"Current deterrence architecture prevents escalation. China calculates the cost of military action remains too high. Status quo continues with periodic tension spikes.","current_probability":15,"previous_probability":18,"trend":"falling","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"8209a18f-521f-4846-a243-cab0949dcaa6","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"S2","title":"Deterrence Bypassed (Paralysis Strategy)","category":"Strategic","severity":4,"description":"China achieves political control without invasion by gradually normalizing military presence, exhausting Taiwan psychologically, weakening allied resolve, and foreclosing options.","current_probability":75,"previous_probability":72,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"0666fc75-399f-45f1-8698-a5095dbfea01","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"S3","title":"US Strategic Overextension","category":"Strategic","severity":4,"description":"Active conflict in the Middle East depletes Patriot interceptors, precision munitions, and naval assets committed to the Pacific. China recognizes a window of reduced US deterrence.","current_probability":38,"previous_probability":35,"trend":"rising","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":null},{"id":"7a8704e1-27d8-4c39-891b-0f64fceff17a","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"S4","title":"Nuclear Escalation Risk","category":"Strategic","severity":5,"description":"A conventional conflict over Taiwan escalates to nuclear threats or use. China's nuclear modernization and no-first-use policy ambiguity create uncertainty.","current_probability":8,"previous_probability":8,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"active","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":null}],"retiredScenarios":[{"id":"26ad0d9f-38b2-4453-b9b9-f91d34102e75","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"M5","title":"Kinmen and Matsu Seizure","category":"Military","severity":4,"description":"China seizes the outlying islands of Kinmen and Matsu, which sit just off the Chinese coast. A limited territorial gain that tests allied resolve without triggering full-scale war.","current_probability":13,"previous_probability":15,"trend":"falling","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":"2026-04-05T12:06:05.759+00:00"},{"id":"f00d51e0-0069-4e40-b50b-42f7897e2c58","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"P1","title":"Negotiated Settlement (Beijing's Terms)","category":"Political","severity":4,"description":"Taiwan accepts a framework acknowledging Beijing's sovereignty in exchange for autonomy guarantees. A 'one country, two systems' variant driven by political exhaustion or US abandonment.","current_probability":5,"previous_probability":5,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":"2026-03-29T12:08:11.726+00:00"},{"id":"352bb207-4a09-4f9e-adae-54fce611c868","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"P3","title":"Taiwan Independence Declaration","category":"Political","severity":5,"description":"Taiwan formally declares independence, abandoning strategic ambiguity. Triggers immediate Chinese military response. The reddest of red lines for Beijing.","current_probability":3,"previous_probability":3,"trend":"stable","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":"2026-04-03T12:06:05.267+00:00"},{"id":"7235fab0-a111-42ca-8ab2-0e8b76ee000b","crisis_id":"a68e8cf4-2c40-4028-9d25-9562d130e832","code":"R2","title":"US Abandonment","category":"Regional","severity":4,"description":"United States signals or demonstrates unwillingness to defend Taiwan militarily. Strategic ambiguity collapses toward non-intervention. May be driven by Iran overextension.","current_probability":12,"previous_probability":14,"trend":"falling","key_indicators":null,"dependencies":null,"contradictions":null,"status":"retired","created_at":"2026-03-06T14:55:36.999573+00:00","retired_at":"2026-04-21T12:08:26.457+00:00"}]}